Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:57:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4699…e03c weather 550 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (221 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$508 (-0%) realized +$536 · open −$1,044
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate96%515W / 21L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,607per market
Trades / day220.5pace
Fees−$283est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$25,905now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$8,951
crypto 32% −$269
weather 10% −$3,162
sports 9% −$5,892
world 8% +$2,145
finance 2% +$649
politics 2% +$169
tech 0% +$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (221 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 232 -2.1% -11.4% 95% 3% -9.5%
≤30d 536 -0.4% -9.9% 96% 3% -9.3%
≤90d 536 -0.4% -9.9% 96% 3% -9.3%
all 536 -0.4% -9.9% 96% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover220.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 3% -9.3%
10% -18.5% 1% -18.0%
15% ← realistic here -26.4% 1% -25.9%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$4,839) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$3,024 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$25,905
Realized+$536
Unrealized−$1,044
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses515 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$283
Open positions15
Markets (closed)536 / 550
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$3,607
Trades / day220.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 536 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? No 93¢ 92¢ $9,300 $9,250 −$50 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? No 96¢ 100¢ $4,816 $4,998 +$182 (+4%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Yes 36¢ 23¢ $3,556 $2,300 −$1,256 (-35%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 17? No 98¢ 99¢ $2,087 $2,096 +$9 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $1,768 $1,799 +$31 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $1,007 $1,023 +$17 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $970 $991 +$21 (+2%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026? Yes 94¢ 92¢ $950 $935 −$15 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $769 $780 +$11 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $716 $725 +$9 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $360 $363 +$3 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 17? No 99¢ 98¢ $248 $244 −$4 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? No 99¢ 97¢ $162 $159 −$3 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $132 $133 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $109 $110 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5,482 +$82 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $6,553 +$103 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $4,755 +$245 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $16,193 +$300 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $5,765 +$120 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $947 +$19 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $1,935 +$31 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $990 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $3,902 +$76 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $5,365 +$53 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 17 $923 +$29 +3%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $5,044 −$1,391 -28%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $1,070 +$47 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 17 $354 +$4 +1%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9,027 +$973 +11%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $11,149 +$228 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $990 +$10 +1%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8,734 +$1,266 +14%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 on June 16? Jun 17 $8,289 +$153 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? Jun 17 $1,258 +$17 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 17 $3,644 +$78 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 16? Jun 17 $642 +$14 +2%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $1,230 +$11 +1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $7,940 +$514 +6%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $37,881 +$2,083 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $750 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,480 +$21 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $602 +$12 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $23,718 +$240 +1%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $49,298 +$2,342 +5%
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Jun 16 $13,999 −$7,503 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $5,526 +$52 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $3,181 +$31 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $2,458 +$12 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1,728 +$60 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $205 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,318 +$44 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $916 +$13 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $525 +$18 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $463 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,381 +$40 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $992 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $14,073 +$333 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $2,228 +$27 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2,687 +$77 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $868 +$21 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $102 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $1,104 +$18 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $4,701 +$116 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10,248 +$134 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 58m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $312 58m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,058 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $3,799 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $120 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $1,578 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $120 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $113 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1,978 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $3,711 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $9,320 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $19 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,938 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $29 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $53 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $65 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $23 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $4 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $72 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $8 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $3 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,904.58 · official $25,943.99 (match) · 3500 history records