Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
46 0x4698…d7a5 sports 743 markets active 1h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$48,060 (-3%) realized −$48,060 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate64%478W / 265L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,966per market
Trades / day41.4pace
Fees−$12,694est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,524
7 days−$34,797
14 days−$27,431
30 days−$43,303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$57,828
other 3% +$1,284
crypto 0% +$233
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -10.9% -19.4% 57% 52% -35.9%
≤30d 391 -9.9% -18.5% 64% 56% -15.4%
≤90d 743 -7.9% -16.7% 64% 57% -12.8%
all 743 -7.9% -16.7% 64% 57% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.7% 57% -12.8%
10% -24.7% 43% -21.1%
15% ← realistic here -31.9% 29% -28.7%
20% -38.6% 16% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$2,894) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$739 vs −$1,545 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$48,060
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses478 / 265
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$12,694
Open positions0
Markets (closed)743 / 743
History coverage55d
Avg bet$1,966
Trades / day41.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 743 Trades
no open positions (238 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3,002 +$59 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $560 +$268 +48%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $7,703 +$3,749 +49%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova Jun 16 $1,366 +$85 +6%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $202 +$132 +65%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $2,360 −$2,333 -99%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $1,005 +$173 +17%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $1,204 −$1,200 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 15 $4,725 +$2,223 +47%
Dublin: Alexis Galarneau vs Francesco Maestrelli Jun 15 $1,028 +$545 +53%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $2,818 −$2,787 -99%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $2,008 +$289 +14%
Nottingham Open: Maya Joint vs Yulia Starodubtseva Jun 15 $485 +$221 +46%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $2,019 −$2,000 -99%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $3,028 +$1,029 +34%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $12 +$28 +226%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $1,179 −$1,163 -99%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $486 −$187 -39%
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Jun 15 $1,254 −$853 -68%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $242 +$35 +14%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,953 +$165 +8%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $482 −$480 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $759 −$753 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $1,228 +$840 +68%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $479 +$348 +73%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $246 −$240 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $782 +$175 +22%
Lyon: Felix Balshaw vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 14 $407 −$400 -98%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mihalikova/Nicholls vs Fernandez/Siegemu Jun 14 $61 −$60 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $486 +$356 +73%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $486 −$305 -63%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $485 +$246 +51%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken Jun 14 $485 +$223 +46%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $60 +$90 +152%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $484 +$211 +44%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $482 +$91 +19%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $424 +$186 +44%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,090 +$465 +43%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $971 +$217 +22%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $474 +$184 +39%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $483 −$480 -99%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $481 +$46 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $96 −$95 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $602 +$91 +15%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $63 −$62 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $481 +$46 +10%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Mikhail Kukushkin Jun 13 $242 +$70 +29%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $488 +$584 +120%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $483 +$140 +29%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $970 −$960 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $3,002 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $560 10h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $1,213 10h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $61 10h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $2 10h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $27 10h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $520 10h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $355 10h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $81 10h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $1,978 10h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $29 10h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $109 10h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $2 10h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $10 10h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $13 10h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $13 10h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $10 10h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $22 10h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $13 10h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $66 10h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $2 10h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $71 10h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $28 10h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 67¢ $3,079 10h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 64¢ $1,177 15h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 58¢ $1,011 15h
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova BUY Karolina Muchova 94¢ $1,366 15h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 89¢ $1,204 16h
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 60¢ $202 16h
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Leylah Fernandez 57¢ $173 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2547 history records