Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:50:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x4698…f54a
crypto · 177 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$58 +25%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$58 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses55 / 122
Open positions0
Markets (closed)177 / 177
History coverage38d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 0 History 177 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$19
14 days+$73
30 days+$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +17%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$3 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$4 +204%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +21%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 10 $2 $0 -19%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 -0%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -86%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 +$3 +148%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 76°F or higher on June Jun 07 $2 −$2 -91%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -69%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $2 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 06 $2 −$2 -86%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 05 $2 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -91%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 1? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -65%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 4? Jun 05 $1 +$77 +6707%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 4? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 +$4 +721%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 1? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -95%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 -42%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -54%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -67%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 4? Jun 03 $1 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -69%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 2? Jun 03 $2 −$1 -51%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 2? Jun 02 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 51% +$89
crypto 45% −$24
finance 3% −$7
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 94¢ $0 4m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 94¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 94¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 94¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 94¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 94¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 94¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 92¢ $1 5m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 92¢ $1 5m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 92¢ $1 6m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 92¢ $0 7m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 94¢ $0 13m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 95¢ $2 14m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $2 26m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 27m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 29m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 30m
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 95¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 97¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 97¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 82¢ $2 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? SELL Yes 87¢ $2 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 13? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 90¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 90¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $0 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $2 25h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 12? SELL Yes 94¢ $2 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -27.3% -34.2% 24% 17% -35.4%
≤30d 84 +47.0% +33.0% 21% 17% +9.5%
≤90d 177 +10.7% +0.1% 31% 26% -8.1%
all 177 +10.7% +0.1% 31% 26% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 26% -8.1%
10% -9.4% 20% -16.9%
15% -18.2% 19% -24.9%
20% -26.2% 15% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 557 history records