Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T03:41:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
46 0x4697…ae50 crypto 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 606d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$244 (+1%) realized +$181 · open +$63
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate88%118W / 16L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,119now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$57
14 days−$89
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% +$164
weather 20% +$19
other 14% +$32
politics 12% +$2
finance 3% +$4
world 3% −$4
sports 1% +$9
tech 1% +$4
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -8.9% -17.6% 0% 0% -17.6%
≤30d 4 -1.3% -10.7% 50% 0% -13.2%
≤90d 34 +1.1% -8.5% 94% 0% -9.8%
all 134 -2.3% -11.6% 88% 6% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 6% -8.9%
10% -20.1% 3% -17.6%
15% -27.8% 2% -25.5%
20% -34.9% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$11 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.1 per $1 lost it wins $2.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

606d coverage
Net worth$1,119
Realized+$181
Unrealized+$63
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses118 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)134 / 139
History coverage606d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 86¢ 98¢ $474 $540 +$66 (+14%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $198 $198 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? No 100¢ 98¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $158 $158 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 16? No 99¢ 100¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 15 $640 −$57 -9%
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $769 −$38 -5%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? Jun 02 $76 +$6 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C on May 16? May 17 $638 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C on May 15? May 16 $297 +$3 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 5°C on May 15? May 16 $119 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 6°C on May 15? May 16 $165 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 0°C on May 15? May 16 $54 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 5°C on May 13? May 14 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C or below on May 13? May 13 $335 +$1 +0%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $356 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 10°C or below on May 12? May 12 $450 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on May 12? May 11 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C or below on May 12? May 11 $379 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C or higher on May 11? May 11 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on May 10? May 10 $800 +$2 +0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? May 05 $100 +$10 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 01 $618 +$2 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 01 $145 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 23? Apr 27 $612 +$6 +1%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 23 $120 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 22 Apr 23 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on April 22? Apr 23 $254 +$1 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? Apr 22 $50 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C or below on April 23? Apr 22 $78 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 21 $150 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 21 $280 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 14 $194 +$1 +1%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 06 $145 +$9 +6%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Apr 01 $110 +$1 +1%
XRP all time high by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $130 +$1 +0%
Solana all time high by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $138 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of March? Apr 01 $200 +$4 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 01 $250 +$1 +0%
US x Iran meeting by March 15, 2026? Mar 17 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on February 9? Mar 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $250 by end of June? Mar 06 $200 +$4 +2%
Will BNB dip to $300 in February? Mar 03 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Solana dip to $30 in February? Mar 03 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on March 1? Mar 03 $421 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 01 $58 +$1 +2%
Will XRP reach $3.40 in February? Mar 01 $110 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 01 $150 +$1 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of February? Feb 28 $100 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Feb 14 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on February 9? Feb 09 $98 +$2 +2%
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026? Feb 08 $20 +$2 +9%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by February 28? Feb 01 $100 +$6 +6%
Trump x Greenland deal signed by January 31? Feb 01 $50 +$2 +4%
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? Feb 01 $60 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 14°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $158 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $198 13h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $200 14h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $27 14h
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 87¢ $583 14h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $298 7d
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 40¢ $215 7d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 95¢ $640 28d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C on May 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 30d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C on May 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 30d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C on May 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $39 30d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C on May 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $547 30d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 0°C on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $54 31d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 7°C on May 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $297 31d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 6°C on May 15? BUY No 99¢ $165 31d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 5°C on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $119 31d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $176 31d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C or below on May 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 33d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C or below on May 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $237 33d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 5°C on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $115 34d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 10°C or below on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $450 35d
Will Trump visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $356 36d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C or higher on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $19 36d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on May 12? BUY No 98¢ $49 36d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C or below on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $379 36d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on May 10? BUY No 100¢ $800 37d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31? BUY No 92¢ $76 39d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? BUY No 100¢ $618 49d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on April 23? BUY No 99¢ $122 54d
Trump out as President by April 30? SELL No 100¢ $122 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,118.91 · official $1,118.91 (match) · 829 history records