Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:48:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
46 0x4696…e741 sports 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,021 (-7%) realized −$1,020 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%38W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$97est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$120
14 days−$476
30 days−$460
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$1,897
politics 11% +$748
other 1% +$75
culture 1% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 18 -53.3% -57.8% 17% 17% -23.8%
≤90d 56 -21.6% -29.1% 38% 38% -13.7%
all 90 -15.3% -23.4% 42% 42% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 42% -16.1%
10% -30.7% 42% -24.2%
15% -37.4% 41% -31.5%
20% -43.5% 39% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$151 vs −$130 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$1,020
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses38 / 52
Est. fees paid−$97
Open positions1
Markets (closed)90 / 91
History coverage156d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 60¢ 60¢ $160 $159 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $122 −$120 -99%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $122 −$120 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $122 −$120 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $122 +$101 +83%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $122 −$120 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $61 −$60 -98%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $121 +$84 +69%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $122 −$120 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $122 −$120 -98%
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5) Jun 04 $847 −$77 -9%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $122 −$120 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $122 −$120 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $27 −$26 -98%
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Faria (+1.5) May 30 $152 −$150 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana May 30 $153 −$150 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $315 +$938 +298%
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 29 $122 −$120 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic May 27 $40 −$38 -97%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) May 04 $185 +$110 +60%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $173 −$170 -98%
Madrid Open: Jakub Mensik vs Alexander Zverev Apr 29 $320 +$160 +50%
Madrid Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli Apr 28 $124 −$124 -99%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Atmane (+1.5) Apr 27 $105 −$105 -100%
Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Ignacio Buse Apr 24 $120 +$132 +110%
Madrid Open: Lorenzo Sonego vs Dusan Lajovic Apr 22 $170 −$167 -98%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Apr 21 $120 −$118 -98%
Will We Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (PP–DB) finish secon Apr 20 $42 −$38 -91%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5) Apr 19 $52 +$37 +70%
Will Vitality win the ESL Grand Slam at IEM Rio? Apr 19 $102 +$75 +73%
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the 2026 Bulgarian Parliamentary el Apr 19 $250 +$79 +32%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Apr 19 $70 +$50 +72%
Will Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 Apr 19 $55 −$35 -63%
Will United Left (BSP) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian par Apr 19 $100 +$114 +114%
Barcelona Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hamad Medjedovic Apr 18 $170 +$130 +76%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $100 −$98 -98%
Barcelona Open: Cameron Norrie vs Rafael Jodar Apr 17 $120 −$118 -98%
BMW Open: Denis Shapovalov vs Fabian Marozsan Apr 16 $172 −$170 -99%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Diallo (+1.5) Apr 16 $43 −$43 -100%
BMW Open: Alexander Zverev vs Gabriel Diallo Apr 14 $100 −$97 -97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 14 $120 −$118 -98%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $1,101 +$628 +57%
Barcelona Open: Marco Trungelliti vs Hamad Medjedovic Apr 13 $170 −$167 -98%
Barcelona Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Jack Draper Apr 13 $170 −$168 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FUT Esports (BO5) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 12 $169 +$129 +76%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Valentin Vacherot vs Alex de Minaur Apr 11 $50 +$90 +180%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playof Apr 10 $300 −$295 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Mar 29 $100 +$59 +59%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterd Mar 29 $116 +$84 +72%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterda Mar 28 $100 +$163 +163%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Mar 27 $116 −$116 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $162 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $122 6d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 56¢ $122 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner BUY PARIVISION 47¢ $122 7d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $122 8d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 38¢ $122 8d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 23¢ $61 9d
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 59¢ $121 9d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 42¢ $122 9d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY NRG 43¢ $20 17d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY NRG 43¢ $102 17d
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5) BUY Arnaldi 50¢ $37 17d
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5) BUY Arnaldi 51¢ $101 17d
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5) BUY Arnaldi 51¢ $101 17d
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5) BUY Arnaldi 51¢ $101 17d
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5) BUY Arnaldi 51¢ $101 17d
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5) BUY Arnaldi 51¢ $101 17d
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5) BUY Arnaldi 51¢ $101 17d
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5) BUY Arnaldi 69¢ $101 17d
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-2.5) vs Arnaldi (+2.5) BUY Arnaldi 70¢ $101 17d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Liquid 41¢ $122 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 40¢ $122 20d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 33¢ $27 20d
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Faria (+1.5) BUY Tiafoe 47¢ $152 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana BUY Francisco Comesana 42¢ $153 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Joao Fonseca 19¢ $102 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Joao Fonseca 18¢ $51 22d
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta BUY Thiago Agustin Tirante 42¢ $122 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Joao Fonseca 34¢ $51 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic BUY Joao Fonseca 35¢ $110 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.80 · official $158.80 (match) · 257 history records