trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 1 | +12.2% | +1.5% | 100% | 100% | +1.5% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -9.2% | -17.9% | 71% | 29% | -66.5% |
| all | 13 | -3.4% | -12.6% | 85% | 23% | -65.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.6% | 23% | -65.0% |
| 10% | -20.9% | 0% | -68.4% |
| 15% | -28.6% | 0% | -71.4% |
| 20% | -35.6% | 0% | -74.2% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? | Yes | 98¢ | 96¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 15? | Yes | 96¢ | 96¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? | Yes | 86¢ | 86¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? | No | 98¢ | 98¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 23 be between 85 and 90? | Yes | 99¢ | 99¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will MrBeast's next video get between 41 and 43 million views on day 2? | No | 89¢ | 84¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? | No | 96¢ | 93¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 8 - 14? | Yes | 95¢ | 84¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-12%) |
| Pistons vs. Timberwolves | Timberwolves | 50¢ | 0¢ | $154 | $0 | −$154 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | May 24 | $17 | +$2 | +12% |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? | May 13 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | May 12 | $31 | +$4 | +14% |
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 17 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Pistons vs. Timberwolves | Mar 26 | $154 | −$154 | -100% |
| Will NCAA March Madness Live be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store | Mar 25 | $1 | $0 | +4% |
| Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi | Mar 20 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week of March 9 above $450? | Mar 16 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of March 9 above $195? | Mar 16 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the total number of TSA passengers for March 5 be between 2,200,0 | Mar 13 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10? | Mar 13 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? | Mar 06 | $1 | $0 | +17% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on January 26? | Jan 30 | $1 | $0 | +1% |