Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:42:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4692…0fee sports 600 markets active 0h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,356 (-3%) realized −$3,328 · open −$28
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate76%457W / 142L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day9.1pace
Fees−$157est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$349now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$141
7 days−$848
14 days−$848
30 days−$837
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$2,843
crypto 15% −$577
other 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -45.0% -50.2% 36% 9% -34.6%
≤30d 23 -18.1% -25.9% 61% 17% -23.4%
≤90d 111 -11.0% -19.4% 68% 22% -17.3%
all 599 -5.3% -14.3% 76% 19% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 19% -12.7%
10% -22.5% 11% -21.0%
15% -30.0% 8% -28.7%
20% -36.8% 5% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$76 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$349
Realized−$3,328
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses457 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$157
Open positions1
Markets (closed)599 / 600
History coverage244d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day9.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 599 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jessica Pegula 61¢ 56¢ $377 $349 −$28 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Ziga Sesko Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Aoi Ito Jun 20 $498 +$1 +0%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $92 −$92 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $176 −$174 -99%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $167 +$9 +5%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $165 −$164 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $514 −$77 -15%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $794 −$86 -11%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $294 −$294 -100%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $307 +$79 +26%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Tommy Paul May 23 $102 −$102 -100%
ITF Bol: Andrey Chepelev vs Noa Vukadin May 23 $99 +$1 +1%
ITF Bol: Nikita Mashtakov vs Maks Kasnikowski May 23 $97 +$3 +3%
Hamburg European Open: Alex de Minaur vs Tommy Paul May 22 $50 +$75 +151%
Geneva Open: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik May 22 $268 +$5 +2%
Set 1 Winner: Mboko vs Cristian May 22 $226 −$226 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Tom Gentzsch vs Roman Safiullin May 22 $268 +$2 +1%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Emma Navarro vs Ann Li May 22 $264 +$3 +1%
Geneva Open: Arthur Rinderknech vs Alexander Bublik May 21 $400 +$20 +5%
Pallacanestro Trieste vs. Pallacanestro Brescia May 21 $212 +$172 +81%
Geneva Open: Alex Michelsen vs Learner Tien May 21 $228 +$2 +1%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Victoria Mboko vs Leylah Fernandez May 21 $172 +$56 +32%
Hamburg European Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Frances Tiafoe May 20 $8 −$8 -98%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Anhelina Kali May 20 $9 $0 +4%
Geneva Open: Stan Wawrinka vs Alex Michelsen May 20 $6 +$3 +41%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Tom Gentzsch May 20 $6 $0 +1%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Emilio Nava vs Thiago Seyboth Wild May 20 $6 $0 +0%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Toby Samuel vs David Goffin May 20 $65 −$65 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Sloane Stephens vs Lisa Pigato May 20 $63 +$3 +5%
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Learner Tien May 20 $40 +$8 +20%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Liam Draxl May 20 $49 +$5 +10%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Nikoloz May 05 $182 +$4 +2%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Anhelina Kalinina vs Katie May 05 $184 +$1 +0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Anastasia Potapova vs Niko May 05 $174 +$11 +6%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Gabriela Ruse vs Sinja Kra May 05 $159 +$15 +10%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Cristian Garin vs Jan Choi May 05 $260 −$103 -40%
Wuxi: Alex Bolt vs Fajing Sun May 05 $258 +$3 +1%
Jiujiang: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Heather Watson May 05 $243 +$15 +6%
Grand Prix Hassan II: Mattia Bellucci vs Reda Bennani May 05 $56 −$51 -90%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 05 $18 −$18 -100%
Bucharest Open: Roberto Bautista Agut vs Titouan Droguet May 05 $21 −$21 -100%
Madrid Open: Rafael Jodar vs Jesper de Jong May 05 $41 −$41 -100%
Bucharest Open, Qualification: Stefan Haita vs Joel Schwaerzler May 05 $170 −$35 -21%
Hawks vs. Celtics: O/U 222.5 May 05 $62 −$62 -100%
Madrid Open: Camila Osorio vs Naomi Osaka May 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Madrid Open: Mirra Andreeva vs Marta Kostyuk May 05 $61 −$61 -100%
76ers vs. Heat: O/U 246.5 May 05 $66 −$66 -100%
76ers vs. Heat: O/U 243.5 May 05 $185 −$185 -100%
Jiujiang: Elena Micic vs Taylah Preston May 05 $166 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $168 4m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $180 4m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $3 5m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $5 5m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $21 5m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Jessica Pegula 41¢ $369 12m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula SELL Jessica Pegula 41¢ $5 13m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 54¢ $493 1h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Ziga Sesko SELL Alex Molcan 100¢ $5 1h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Alex Molcan vs Ziga Sesko BUY Alex Molcan 100¢ $5 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Aoi Ito SELL Diane Parry 100¢ $499 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Aoi Ito BUY Diane Parry 100¢ $471 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Aoi Ito BUY Diane Parry 100¢ $11 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Aoi Ito BUY Diane Parry 99¢ $16 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 48¢ $92 20h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 44¢ $51 23h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 47¢ $56 2d
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 47¢ $119 2d
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 89¢ $155 2d
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 82¢ $4 2d
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro SELL Emma Navarro 82¢ $16 2d
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 83¢ $167 2d
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 23¢ $140 2d
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 16¢ $25 2d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse SELL Brandon Nakashima 100¢ $220 2d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Brandon Nakashima 98¢ $216 2d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse SELL Ignacio Buse 13¢ $217 3d
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 17¢ $298 3d
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Nikola Bartunkova 100¢ $328 3d
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Nikola Bartunkova 91¢ $299 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $349.02 · official $349.08 (match) · 2439 history records