Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:01:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
46 0x4692…68ed other 64 markets active 0h ago coverage 620d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$520 (-4%) realized −$520 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%29W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days−$18
14 days−$373
30 days−$295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 63% −$26
other 22% −$303
world 7% −$288
crypto 3% +$89
economics 3% −$1
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -13.4% -21.6% 44% 41% -11.2%
≤30d 47 -16.4% -24.3% 45% 43% -20.3%
≤90d 51 -13.1% -21.4% 47% 45% -18.3%
all 64 -12.9% -21.2% 45% 44% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 44% -12.8%
10% -28.8% 28% -21.2%
15% -35.7% 16% -28.8%
20% -42.0% 9% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$31 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

620d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$520
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses29 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage620d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $9 −$4 -46%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $61 +$19 +31%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $1 +$2 +180%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $61 −$1 -2%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Belgium? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $61 −$3 -6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $40 +$23 +57%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? Jun 26 $5 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Senegal 1 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $40 +$5 +13%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $47 +$10 +21%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $101 −$55 -54%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $3 −$2 -74%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $71 +$30 +43%
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 1 Haiti? Jun 24 $60 +$6 +10%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 24 $91 −$27 -30%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $10 +$3 +34%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +48%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $10 −$5 -47%
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $10 +$3 +29%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 24 $10 −$5 -51%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 24 $70 +$15 +22%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 −$5 -9%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 +$7 +35%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $45 −$25 -55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $45 +$7 +16%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $9 +$3 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $36 −$27 -77%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 +$15 +67%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$87 -86%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $211 −$110 -52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $161 +$53 +33%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $136 +$29 +22%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $138 −$2 -2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $218 +$38 +17%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $100 −$97 -97%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $150 −$148 -99%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 05 $100 +$40 +40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $70 +$38 +54%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $290 −$81 -28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $56 +$15 +26%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 04 $80 +$53 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 2m
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 26m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 78¢ $70 27m
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $9 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 54¢ $10 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 85¢ $30 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 17h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: Egypt 3 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: Egypt 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Belgium? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 18h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 61¢ $50 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 19h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 59¢ $57 19h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 19h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 94¢ $64 20h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? SELL No 86¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 1 Spain? BUY No 87¢ $5 22h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $40 22h
Exact Score: Senegal 1 - 0 Iraq? BUY No 88¢ $40 25h
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? BUY No 69¢ $10 43h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $7 43h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 98¢ $57 45h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $47 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 31¢ $46 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 165 history records