Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:40:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x4691…2a8a
crypto · 361 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$383 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$384 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$100
Realized+$384
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses98 / 262
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions1
Markets (closed)360 / 361
History coverage28d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day20.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 1 History 360 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$128
7 days+$33
14 days+$26
30 days+$384
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 12¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Up 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 40¢ 0¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 44¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 39¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $41 −$38 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $86 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$25 -96%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $99 +$98 +99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $120 +$179 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 13 $22 −$10 -45%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $84 +$128 +153%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $101 +$83 +83%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $71 +$79 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 13 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$25 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $80 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $29 −$28 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $19 −$18 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $28 −$27 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$22 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 12 $24 −$8 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $83 −$81 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$43 +204%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$9 -95%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $45 −$45 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $25 −$25 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $33 −$32 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 08 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 08 $23 +$14 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 05 $20 +$25 +123%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 54% +$255
sports 45% −$82
other 1% +$210
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $41 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $19 22m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $166 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $50 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $30 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 32m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $196 39m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 49¢ $99 59m
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $299 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $120 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $12 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 98¢ $212 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $33 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $51 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $184 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $101 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $151 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $9 2h
United States vs. Paraguay: United States 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 46¢ $71 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $48 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $22 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -41.5% -47.1% 22% 22% -7.0%
≤30d 360 -11.6% -20.0% 27% 27% -6.9%
≤90d 360 -11.6% -20.0% 27% 27% -6.9%
all 360 -11.6% -20.0% 27% 27% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.0% 27% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 27% -15.8%
15% -34.7% 26% -24.0%
20% -41.1% 25% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.77 · official $99.77 (match) · 999 history records