Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:26:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x468f…77d1 crypto 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$83 (-3%) realized −$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate19%7W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$579
7 days−$579
14 days−$579
30 days−$579
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$631
other 9% −$225
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-58.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -75.8% -78.1% 12% 12% -71.0%
≤30d 8 -75.8% -78.1% 12% 12% -71.0%
≤90d 29 -50.6% -55.3% 17% 17% -46.4%
all 37 -54.1% -58.5% 19% 19% -46.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.5% 19% -46.3%
10% -62.5% 16% -51.4%
15% -66.1% 16% -56.1%
20% -69.4% 14% -60.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late -76% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$45 · ×1.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses7 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage118d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $12 −$11 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $236 −$226 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $206 −$100 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$50 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 26 $103 +$44 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $221 −$5 -2%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 26 $228 −$225 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 08 $7 −$7 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 08 $59 −$48 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Apr 02 $103 −$99 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 02 $50 −$47 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Apr 02 $40 −$38 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 02 $52 −$2 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 02 $25 −$24 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 02 $25 +$42 +170%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Apr 02 $67 −$17 -25%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 02 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Apr 02 $20 −$16 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Apr 02 $50 +$34 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Apr 02 $50 −$47 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Apr 02 $50 −$47 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Apr 02 $30 −$5 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Apr 02 $50 +$92 +185%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Apr 02 $25 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8PM ET Apr 02 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Apr 02 $100 +$207 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 02 $50 −$44 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 02 $60 −$59 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Feb 28 $147 −$145 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Feb 28 $129 +$18 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Feb 28 $86 +$44 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Feb 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Feb 28 $83 −$23 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Feb 28 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Feb 28 $18 −$3 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $12 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 5¢ $4 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $236 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $105 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $206 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $52 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $147 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $351 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $216 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $228 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $7 79d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $8 79d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $59 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 79d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $48 85d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $55 85d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $50 85d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $20 85d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $20 85d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 85d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $118 85d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $20 85d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $30 85d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $25 85d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $67 85d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $25 85d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $112 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 66 history records