Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:35:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x468e…acf2 politics 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%2W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$291per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$7
other 25% −$5
sports 12% −$1
world 8% −$2
economics 6% −$1
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 24 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 46 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses2 / 44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage196d
Avg bet$291
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $548 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $274 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $275 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $275 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $275 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $276 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $278 −$3 -1%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $279 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $279 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 19 $281 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 17 $281 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 16 $281 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $281 $0 +0%
Will Kristoffer Reitan win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $281 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $281 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 05 $281 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $281 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 30 $281 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 29 $281 $0 +0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $281 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $282 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $282 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 21 $282 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Mar 19 $564 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $282 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 14 $282 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be János Lázár? Mar 13 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Nguyễn Duy Ngọc be the next President of Vietnam? Mar 09 $284 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 08 $286 −$3 -1%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 05 $274 $0 +0%
Will Kang Hoon-sik win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Mar 05 $274 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 04 $270 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair? Mar 03 $281 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 28 $278 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 26 $276 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 25 $281 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 08 $277 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Feb 07 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 07 $276 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 03 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 09 $277 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 09 $277 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Jerome Powell as the next Fed chair? Dec 08 $278 −$1 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 07 $278 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 06 $277 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Dec 04 $279 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $274 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $274 13h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $274 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $274 7d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $274 9d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $274 10d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $274 15d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $275 17d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $275 20d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $275 20d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $275 29d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $275 30d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $276 32d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $99 32d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 32d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 32d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $92 32d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $0 32d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 32d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $276 36d
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $278 36d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $278 40d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $279 40d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $279 43d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $248 43d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 43d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $280 59d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $281 60d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $281 60d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $79 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records