Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:20:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x468a…c764
sports · 30 markets active 0h ago
4.5score
+$516 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,124 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,124
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses25 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$213
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage4d
Avg bet$839
Trades / day42.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 0 History 30 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,698
7 days+$1,124
14 days+$1,124
30 days+$1,124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $2,090 +$456 +22%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,828 +$250 +14%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,597 +$185 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,601 +$66 +4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,332 +$266 +20%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,174 +$113 +10%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 13 $162 −$3 -2%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 13 $384 −$384 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $1,101 +$119 +11%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $987 +$118 +12%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $855 +$138 +16%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $672 +$168 +25%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $562 +$116 +21%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $494 +$75 +15%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $475 +$15 +3%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $1,903 −$553 -29%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $619 +$152 +25%
LoL: Weibo Gaming Youth Team vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters G Jun 11 $158 +$77 +49%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Seattle Storm Jun 11 $261 +$45 +17%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,222 −$460 -38%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $731 +$18 +2%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $650 +$93 +14%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $481 +$69 +14%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $691 −$691 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $304 +$179 +59%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 10 $702 +$52 +7%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $487 +$221 +45%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $643 +$54 +8%
Ilkley: Emerson Jones vs Dalma Galfi Jun 10 $518 +$119 +23%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $472 +$52 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 90% +$920
other 10% +$204
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $2,546 14m
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 82¢ $21 1h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 82¢ $2,070 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Germany 99¢ $2,078 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 87¢ $1,023 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 87¢ $7 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 87¢ $543 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 87¢ $7 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 87¢ $248 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,781 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $306 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 87¢ $1,017 2h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 91¢ $273 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 98¢ $178 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 98¢ $20 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 98¢ $20 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 98¢ $50 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 98¢ $1 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 98¢ $5 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 98¢ $100 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 98¢ $1,274 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,601 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $1,598 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 83¢ $418 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 83¢ $22 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 83¢ $57 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 83¢ $834 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $1,287 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +6.4% -3.8% 83% 63% -5.5%
≤30d 30 +6.4% -3.8% 83% 63% -5.5%
≤90d 30 +6.4% -3.8% 83% 63% -5.5%
all 30 +6.4% -3.8% 83% 63% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover42.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.8% 63% -5.5%
10% -13.0% 20% -14.5%
15% ← realistic here -21.4% 10% -22.8%
20% -29.1% 3% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 187 history records