Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:50:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
46 0x4689…20e4 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% +$3
other 39% +$3
sports 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -22.1% -29.6% 60% 40% -7.7%
≤30d 5 -22.1% -29.6% 60% 40% -7.7%
≤90d 5 -22.1% -29.6% 60% 40% -7.7%
all 5 -22.1% -29.6% 60% 40% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 40% -7.7%
10% -36.3% 40% -16.5%
15% -42.5% 40% -24.6%
20% -48.1% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage4d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $83 +$3 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $25 +$11 +42%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 91¢ $42 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 92¢ $83 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 96¢ $36 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.11 · official $15.11 (match) · 11 history records