Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:23:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4689…f939 other 68 markets active 5h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (491 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$781 (+8%) realized +$1,510 · open −$729
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +80% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip
Net edge+39%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate14%10W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day490.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$4,178
crypto 11% −$604
weather 3% −$75
sports 1% −$56
world 0% $0
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (491 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+63.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +80.4% +63.2% 14% 12% -47.7%
≤30d 73 +80.4% +63.2% 14% 12% -47.7%
≤90d 73 +80.4% +63.2% 14% 12% -47.7%
all 73 +80.4% +63.2% 14% 12% -47.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover490.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +63.2% 12% -47.7%
10% ← realistic here +47.6% 10% -52.7%
15% +33.3% 8% -57.3%
20% +20.3% 8% -61.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +80% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +17% → late +142% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
0.6 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$73 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$1,510
Unrealized−$729
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses10 / 63
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions30
Markets (closed)73 / 68
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$148
Trades / day490.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 64¢ 69¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $61 $2 −$59 (-97%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $61 $2 −$59 (-97%)
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $61 $2 −$59 (-97%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $61 $2 −$59 (-97%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $61 $2 −$59 (-97%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $61 $2 −$59 (-97%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $61 $2 −$59 (-97%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $61 $2 −$59 (-97%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $61 $2 −$59 (-97%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $61 $2 −$59 (-97%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $61 $2 −$59 (-97%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $61 $2 −$59 (-97%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 66¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Will Alexander Bublik be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-33%)
Will Alexei Popyrin be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-90%)
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-90%)
Will Nicolás Jarry be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-90%)
Will Tomáš Macháč be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-90%)
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $0 +$4 +16348%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 17 $0 +$15 +114875%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 3 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 17 $0 −$20 -90354%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 17 $0 $0 +1106%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 13? Jun 17 $0 −$29 -36117%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 17 $0 −$2 -20024%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 17 $0 +$3 +5371%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 2 Tunisia? Jun 17 $0 −$5 -18651%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? Jun 17 $36 −$31 -86%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $108 −$90 -83%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $36 −$22 -60%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $36 −$18 -51%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $36 −$22 -62%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $36 −$15 -42%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $36 −$32 -88%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $72 −$62 -86%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 16 $36 −$20 -56%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $72 −$53 -74%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $108 −$98 -91%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $36 −$21 -57%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $36 −$19 -52%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $36 −$28 -78%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $396 −$122 -31%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $10 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $36 −$16 -43%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $133 −$76 -57%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $324 −$122 -38%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $108 −$54 -50%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $36 −$29 -82%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $36 −$18 -50%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 15 $36 −$2 -6%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $124 +$177 +143%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $252 −$143 -57%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $100 −$36 -36%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $69 −$61 -89%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $550 −$458 -83%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $358 +$58 +16%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $67 −$55 -82%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $200 −$60 -30%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $505 −$33 -7%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $100 −$18 -18%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $244 −$179 -73%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $136 −$16 -12%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $244 −$151 -62%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $72 −$7 -9%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $350 −$109 -31%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $100 −$21 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $32 −$14 -44%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $36 −$3 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 0 Colombia? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 0 Colombia? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 4h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 4h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 1 Colombia? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 1 Colombia? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 1 Colombia? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 2 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 3 Panama? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 2 Panama? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 1 Panama? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 6h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 3 Panama? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.69 · official $27.38 · 3500 history records