Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:01:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
46 0x4688…322a crypto 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate78%43W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 81% −$5
crypto 11% −$1
politics 5% $0
tech 1% +$1
sports 1% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 5 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 55 +0.1% -9.4% 78% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses43 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage536d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 02 $60 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 04 $65 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in March? Apr 02 $58 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Mar 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? Feb 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 01 $55 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $23 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Jan 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? Dec 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? Nov 04 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Oct 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? Oct 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September? Oct 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? Sep 02 $42 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Aug 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1900 in July? Aug 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? Aug 02 $49 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jul 02 $18 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? Jun 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 11 $5,641 −$6 -0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 20% on April 30? May 05 $3 $0 +2%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in April? May 05 $8 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 05 $9 $0 +1%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will Trump remove tariff on Mexico before May? May 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? May 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2025? Apr 19 $20 $0 -0%
Will another party win the most seats in the next Australian parliamen Apr 18 $16 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in th Apr 15 $42 $0 -0%
Will SER hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 13 $31 $0 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $13 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Apr 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Sima win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 20 $68 $0 -0%
Will the People's Party win the popular vote in Canada's next election Mar 20 $65 $0 -0%
Will Brighton finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Mar 18 $65 $0 -0%
Will Jagmeet Singh be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Mar 18 $60 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in Rebounds? Mar 17 $69 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.20ºC in February 2025? Mar 08 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $65 1h
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $60 30d
Will Solana reach $130 in April? BUY No 100¢ $9 61d
Will Solana reach $130 in April? BUY No 100¢ $56 62d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $4 91d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? BUY No 100¢ $8 91d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in March? BUY No 100¢ $58 92d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $23 120d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $43 123d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $10 150d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? BUY No 100¢ $55 150d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 99¢ $23 182d
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $36 183d
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? BUY No 100¢ $56 211d
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $16 241d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? BUY No 100¢ $38 241d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $10 271d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in September? BUY No 100¢ $16 271d
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September? BUY No 100¢ $39 272d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $20 301d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in August? BUY No 100¢ $42 302d
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? BUY No 100¢ $7 332d
Will Ethereum dip to $1900 in July? BUY No 100¢ $12 334d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in July? BUY No 100¢ $49 334d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $26 363d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? BUY No 99¢ $18 365d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 392d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 393d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.10 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 393d
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? BUY No 100¢ $12 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.97 · official $64.97 (match) · 120 history records