Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:09:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4687…28e2 other 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-3%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%7W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% +$4
sports 11% +$1
crypto 6% −$5
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -15.8% -23.8% 20% 20% -6.9%
≤30d 35 -15.8% -23.8% 20% 20% -6.9%
≤90d 35 -15.8% -23.8% 20% 20% -6.9%
all 35 -15.8% -23.8% 20% 20% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 20% -6.9%
10% -31.1% 20% -15.9%
15% -37.8% 20% -24.0%
20% -43.9% 20% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 59% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×3.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses7 / 28
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage4d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +56%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -78%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $3 $0 -7%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 −$8 -82%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 +$5 +58%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +170%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +249%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 +$18 +924%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 +$17 +442%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$4 +184%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 3m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 18m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 63¢ $0 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 64¢ $0 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 3h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 7h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 79¢ $13 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $8 7h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 26h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 28h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 28h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 28h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 3 Tunisia? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $4 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 20¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.72 · official $2.72 (match) · 63 history records