Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:41:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4686…f0f8 other 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$45 (-0%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate18%11W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 76% −$14
politics 13% −$6
other 8% +$4
crypto 1% +$1
sports 1% −$34
world 1% +$3
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -1.0% -10.4% 11% 5% -9.8%
≤90d 47 -6.3% -15.2% 17% 11% -10.8%
all 61 -5.0% -14.0% 18% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 8% -9.8%
10% -22.2% 8% -18.4%
15% -29.8% 7% -26.3%
20% -36.6% 7% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses11 / 50
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage595d
Avg bet$287
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $10 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $12 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $11 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $12 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $12 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $24 $0 -0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $7 +$6 +83%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $95 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $13 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 18 $60 $0 -0%
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $146 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 12 $147 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers May 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $78 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $77 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $78 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $80 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $76 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $156 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $75 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 23 $79 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $75 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $75 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $77 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $75 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $81 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 17 $75 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $8 +$6 +76%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $9 +$5 +62%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $7 −$7 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $15 +$4 +29%
Pelicans vs. Kings Apr 06 $12 +$19 +158%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in March? Apr 03 $50 $0 +1%
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Mar 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Mar 05 $94 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 13 $91 +$3 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 2h
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 4h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 22h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $37 2d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 2d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $12 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $12 4d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $12 5d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $12 6d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $14 6d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $7 8d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 8d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 54¢ $7 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 11d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $14 13d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $14 13d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 15d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $12 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 17d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $13 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.00 · official $37.00 (match) · 252 history records