Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:35:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4681…f042 crypto 792 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$631 (-2%) realized −$631 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%528W / 264L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$213
7 days−$216
14 days+$99
30 days−$1,256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,251
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -8.8% -17.5% 45% 45% -16.8%
≤30d 615 -0.0% -9.5% 68% 68% -12.4%
≤90d 792 +0.2% -9.3% 67% 67% -12.3%
all 792 +0.2% -9.3% 67% 67% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 67% -12.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 53% -20.7%
15% -25.9% 43% -28.3%
20% -33.2% 23% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$53 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$631
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses528 / 264
Open positions0
Markets (closed)792 / 792
History coverage34d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 792 Trades
no open positions (238 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $59 −$57 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $58 +$42 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $59 −$57 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $58 +$42 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $57 +$42 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $58 −$57 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $46 +$48 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$45 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$48 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$49 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$48 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $51 −$49 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$54 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$55 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $49 +$53 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $48 +$52 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $47 +$51 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $48 −$46 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $49 −$47 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$48 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $51 −$49 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $50 +$71 +143%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $48 +$47 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $49 −$48 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$49 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $53 −$51 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $54 −$52 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $55 −$53 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $54 +$52 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 13 $53 +$58 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $54 −$52 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $55 −$53 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $54 +$56 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $53 +$51 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $54 −$52 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $53 +$53 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $54 −$52 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $55 −$53 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $54 +$54 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $53 +$51 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$56 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $53 −$51 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $52 +$56 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $53 −$51 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 11 $51 +$55 +107%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $52 −$51 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $51 +$50 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $51 +$50 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $59 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $58 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $59 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $58 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $57 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $58 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $46 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $47 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $50 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $51 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $50 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $51 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $52 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $51 16h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $50 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $49 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $48 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $47 32h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $48 36h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $49 37h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $50 42h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $51 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $50 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $48 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $49 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $51 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $52 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $53 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $54 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $55 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1411 history records