Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:48:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x467e…6e86 sports 391 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$238 (-2%) realized −$239 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%175W / 202L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$130est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$639now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$170
14 days−$218
30 days−$303
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$673
other 25% +$204
crypto 3% +$17
world 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 -28.0% -34.9% 22% 22% -18.0%
≤30d 139 -23.6% -30.9% 24% 24% -20.6%
≤90d 377 -8.5% -17.2% 46% 45% -13.0%
all 377 -8.5% -17.2% 46% 45% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 45% -13.0%
10% -25.1% 39% -21.3%
15% -32.3% 33% -28.9%
20% -39.0% 24% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$18 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$639
Realized−$239
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses175 / 202
Est. fees paid−$130
Open positions14
Markets (closed)377 / 391
History coverage93d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 377 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $336 $338 +$3 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? No 65¢ 64¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $32 $39 +$8 (+24%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 38¢ 36¢ $19 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $19 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $13 $10 −$3 (-21%)
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Senegal 1 - 1 Iraq? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 160 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? Jun 26 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $50 −$3 -6%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $50 −$5 -10%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 −$2 -11%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 +$25 +126%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $50 −$4 -8%
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 26 $5 +$11 +216%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $20 +$16 +79%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $5 +$27 +544%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 2 United States? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Netherlands? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 25 $20 −$19 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $50 −$49 -98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 25 $50 +$24 +48%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $300 +$93 +31%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 +$11 +53%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 3 Haiti? Jun 24 $5 −$2 -32%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -97%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $20 +$12 +58%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -96%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -96%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -96%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $5 +$23 +468%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $5 +$35 +704%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $20 +$23 +116%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $377 −$150 -40%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $12 −$12 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 51m
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $12 52m
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 52m
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $133 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $100 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 57¢ $47 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $45 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $50 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $60 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $50 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 65¢ $50 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $50 2h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 2h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $18 2h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $18 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $50 3h
Exact Score: Senegal 1 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Belgium? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 2 Spain? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 France? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 3h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 4h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 4h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $46 15h
Exact Score: Japan 1 - 1 Sweden? SELL Yes 47¢ $16 15h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 53¢ $36 15h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 24h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 24h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $50 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $639.41 · official $639.41 (match) · 756 history records