trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | -1.7% | -11.1% | 43% | 29% | -2.3% |
| ≤30d | 8 | -1.4% | -10.8% | 50% | 25% | -5.4% |
| ≤90d | 11 | -8.4% | -17.1% | 55% | 27% | -5.8% |
| all | 11 | -8.4% | -17.1% | 55% | 27% | -5.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.1% | 27% | -5.8% |
| 10% | -25.1% | 0% | -14.8% |
| 15% | -32.3% | 0% | -23.1% |
| 20% | -38.9% | 0% | -30.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? | No | 94¢ | 93¢ | $82 | $80 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 85¢ | 86¢ | $57 | $57 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | Yes | 80¢ | 80¢ | $54 | $55 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? | No | 86¢ | 86¢ | $46 | $45 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? | Jun 18 | $1 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | Jun 18 | $2 | $0 | -11% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 18 | $6 | −$1 | -21% |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 18 | $15 | −$2 | -14% |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 18 | $39 | +$3 | +8% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $143 | +$17 | +12% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 16 | $9 | +$1 | +14% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? | May 24 | $197 | +$1 | +1% |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | May 12 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Nets vs. Celtics | May 12 | $1 | $0 | +5% |
| Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? | May 12 | $2 | $0 | +14% |