trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +90.7% | +72.5% | 33% | 33% | -6.7% |
| ≤30d | 10 | +42.4% | +28.9% | 50% | 40% | -12.8% |
| ≤90d | 16 | +6.0% | -4.1% | 44% | 38% | -26.6% |
| all | 16 | +6.0% | -4.1% | 44% | 38% | -26.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -4.1% | 38% | -26.6% |
| 10% | -13.3% | 25% | -33.6% |
| 15% | -21.7% | 25% | -40.0% |
| 20% | -29.4% | 25% | -45.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Yes | 34¢ | 36¢ | $400 | $424 | +$24 (+6%) |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Yes | 35¢ | 28¢ | $318 | $256 | −$61 (-19%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | Yes | 47¢ | 41¢ | $200 | $175 | −$25 (-13%) |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Yes | 47¢ | 42¢ | $100 | $90 | −$10 (-10%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 14¢ | 14¢ | $88 | $89 | +$1 (+1%) |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 21¢ | 12¢ | $100 | $56 | −$44 (-44%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | $40 | $38 | −$2 (-5%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 17¢ | 19¢ | $20 | $23 | +$3 (+16%) |
| No-Confidence Vote against Starmer by June 30? | Yes | 35¢ | 1¢ | $52 | $1 | −$51 (-98%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 25 | $300 | −$49 | -16% |
| Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? | Jun 21 | $20 | +$80 | +388% |
| Spread: Belgium (-1.5) | Jun 21 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 18 | $100 | −$64 | -64% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | Jun 17 | $84 | +$9 | +11% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? | Jun 12 | $257 | −$257 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | Jun 02 | $234 | +$175 | +75% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | May 29 | $200 | −$17 | -8% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | May 29 | $50 | +$2 | +4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | May 28 | $40 | +$94 | +235% |
| Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? | May 16 | $100 | +$15 | +15% |
| Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? | May 13 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? | May 12 | $101 | −$101 | -100% |
| Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? | May 10 | $70 | +$39 | +56% |
| Will "Crazy" be said 15+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rog | May 03 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Apr 16 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |