Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:18:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
46 0x4678…8a04 crypto 33 markets active 6d ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate83%25W / 5L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$395per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 25% −$3
other 21% −$2
economics 18% −$2
culture 18% −$2
politics 11% −$1
crypto 7% +$2
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 3 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 10 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 30 +0.4% -9.1% 83% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$176
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses25 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage196d
Avg bet$395
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $61 $61 +$0 (+0%)
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-0%)
Will BNB reach $1,100 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP reach $1.60 June 8-14? Jun 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 11 $87 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 11 $89 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 6-12? May 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 06 $68 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $30 on April 12? May 06 $77 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Apr 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Apr 11 $53 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 11 $61 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 Mar 13 $42 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? Mar 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 13 $56 $0 +0%
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Feb 09 $1 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026? Feb 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? Feb 09 $27 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 09 $37 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 09 $39 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026? Feb 09 $54 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 30? Jan 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 20 $2,356 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 20 $101 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 28 $3,216 −$3 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 28 $1,448 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 27 $2,358 −$2 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 27 $2,361 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on December 26? Dec 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? Dec 26 $61 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? Dec 26 $68 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will BNB reach $1,100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $35 6d
Will XRP reach $1.60 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $34 6d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $61 6d
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $46 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $89 42d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $87 42d
Will the price of Solana be less than $30 on April 12? BUY No 100¢ $77 67d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $68 67d
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 April 6-12? BUY No 100¢ $31 67d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 96d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 96d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $61 96d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 96d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $47 128d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $56 128d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $30 128d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $42 128d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 148d
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 148d
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $1 148d
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? BUY No 100¢ $27 148d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $37 148d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $39 148d
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $101 171d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $23 171d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $855 171d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,446 171d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $1,448 171d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $856 171d
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 100¢ $2,025 171d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $176.25 · official $176.25 (match) · 74 history records