Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:50:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4676…3d2b crypto 693 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$194 (-0%) realized −$194 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate65%447W / 246L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$196
7 days+$196
14 days+$196
30 days+$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$446
sports 2% −$177
world 1% −$17
other 0% +$71
tech 0% +$34
finance 0% +$30
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -3.2% -12.4% 62% 57% -6.0%
≤30d 47 -3.2% -12.4% 62% 57% -6.0%
≤90d 127 -6.6% -15.5% 60% 56% -14.3%
all 693 -2.4% -11.7% 65% 60% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 60% -10.6%
10% -20.2% 48% -19.2%
15% -27.9% 33% -27.0%
20% -34.9% 19% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$47 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$194
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses447 / 246
Open positions0
Markets (closed)693 / 693
History coverage133d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 693 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $128 −$125 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $206 +$155 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 17 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $155 +$137 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $177 +$41 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $229 +$71 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $77 +$30 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $434 +$28 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 17 $101 +$21 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 17 $116 +$32 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $129 +$85 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $127 −$127 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $159 −$159 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $156 +$168 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 17 $129 +$84 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $129 +$104 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $130 +$146 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $305 −$57 -19%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$23 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$42 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $164 −$164 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$22 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $102 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $331 +$49 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $104 +$105 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$8 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$41 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$19 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$10 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$18 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Apr 29 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2712 history records