Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:27:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x466e…b999 other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 399d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$1
crypto 13% $0
politics 12% +$1
world 12% $0
culture 6% $0
tech 4% +$1
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
all 37 -2.8% -12.0% 43% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -9.4%
10% -20.5% 0% -18.1%
15% -28.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -35.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

399d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage399d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 91¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 12 $2 $0 -8%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Dec 12 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Bublik win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 23 $8 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 22 $8 $0 +0%
Israel strike on Iran on June 23? Jun 21 $8 $0 +2%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 20 $8 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 18 $23 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 18 $23 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jun 17 $22 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July? Jun 17 $23 $0 -1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 16 $22 $0 +0%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 15 $21 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 13 $22 $0 +0%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jun 12 $23 $0 -1%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship Jun 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 10 $23 $0 -1%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 03 $26 $0 -1%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 02 $25 $0 -1%
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? Jun 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will PMF or Die build a $1m business in 90 days? Jun 01 $25 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? May 31 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 31 $16 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 28 $10 $0 +1%
2025 May hottest on record? May 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 23 $25 $0 -0%
Will André Ventura be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after the 20 May 21 $24 +$1 +3%
Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 19 $0 $0 -100%
Will Finland be the Televote Winner in the Eurovision 2025 Grand Final May 16 $24 $0 -1%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? May 15 $25 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $33 1h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $36 22d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $36 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 98¢ $3 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 98¢ $30 23d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 98¢ $33 23d
Will Alexander Bublik win Wimbledon 2025? SELL No 98¢ $8 359d
Will Alexander Bublik win Wimbledon 2025? BUY No 98¢ $8 360d
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 97¢ $8 360d
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $8 361d
Israel strike on Iran on June 23? SELL Yes 96¢ $9 361d
Israel strike on Iran on June 23? BUY Yes 94¢ $8 361d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 361d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 97¢ $8 362d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? SELL No 98¢ $8 362d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? BUY No 98¢ $8 362d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $8 363d
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? BUY No 96¢ $8 363d
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 99¢ $7 363d
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 99¢ $23 364d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $23 364d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $23 364d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? SELL No 99¢ $23 364d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $23 365d
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? SELL No 98¢ $16 365d
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? SELL No 98¢ $7 365d
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? BUY No 98¢ $22 365d
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July? SELL No 95¢ $23 365d
Will the U.S. agree to a trade deal with France before July? BUY No 96¢ $23 366d
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 SELL No 98¢ $22 366d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.76 · official $32.76 (match) · 90 history records