Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:58:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x466e…f06c other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%12W / 28L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 26% +$2
other 23% +$1
politics 20% $0
sports 12% $0
crypto 6% $0
culture 5% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1.4% -8.3% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 8 -0.6% -10.0% 38% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 8 -0.6% -10.0% 38% 0% -9.0%
all 40 -0.3% -9.8% 30% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.3% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.14 per $1 lost it wins $3.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses12 / 28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage269d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $54 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $37 +$1 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $88 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $48 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $79 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $1 $0 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $43 +$1 +2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $28 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will Jay Kelly win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Dec 17 $12 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 05 $15 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Oct 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 04 $13 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 01 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $49 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model on September 30? Sep 30 $25 $0 -1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $24 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 29 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 29 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 28 $25 $0 -0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 28 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 27 $19 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $2 $0 -11%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 25 $5 $0 -1%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $23 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Sep 24 $23 $0 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 23 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $54 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 74¢ $38 26h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 72¢ $37 30h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $35 36h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $13 36h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 37h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $43 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $48 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $18 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $18 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $11 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $28 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $12 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $40 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $40 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $40 13d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 14d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $17 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $11 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $16 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $24 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $19 15d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $3 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $39 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $39 17d
Will Jay Kelly win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 100¢ $1 184d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.47 · official $53.47 (match) · 122 history records