Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
46 0x466e…7e5e crypto 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$117 (+0%) realized +$121 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate85%44W / 8L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$1,606per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$4,467now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$69
other 15% +$47
politics 4% −$2
culture 2% −$2
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 86% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 10 +0.2% -9.3% 80% 0% -9.3%
all 52 +0.1% -9.4% 85% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$1,323) neutral
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×17.87 per $1 lost it wins $17.87
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$4,467
Realized+$121
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses44 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)52 / 54
History coverage240d
Avg bet$1,606
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $3,790 $3,786 −$4 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $681 $681 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $4,467 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 14 $4,458 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $4,346 +$13 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 01 $4,412 +$4 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $4,220 +$42 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 23 $4,338 +$9 +0%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 20 $4,335 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? May 17 $35 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Mar 31 $1,158 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? Mar 26 $32 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on January 29? Jan 30 $1,317 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.10 on January 28? Jan 29 $1,316 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on January 27? Jan 28 $1,315 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on January 26? Jan 27 $1,313 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 January 19-25? Jan 26 $1,312 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $160 on January 25? Jan 26 $1,311 +$1 +0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of January 19 above $260? Jan 24 $1,309 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on January 22? Jan 23 $477 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 22? Jan 23 $831 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,900 on January 21? Jan 22 $1,307 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $104,000 January 12-18? Jan 19 $326 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 January 12-18? Jan 19 $980 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $2.50 on January 17? Jan 18 $1,304 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on January 16 Jan 17 $1,302 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on January 14? Jan 15 $1,300 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on January 13? Jan 14 $1,299 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 January 5-11? Jan 12 $1,296 +$3 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.60 in November? Jan 11 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $2.40 on November 28? Nov 29 $1,323 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 27? Nov 28 $1,322 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.50 on November 26? Nov 27 $1,320 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on November 25? Nov 26 $1,319 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 24? Nov 25 $1,318 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 November 17-23? Nov 24 $1,316 +$1 +0%
Will the Monad public sale commitments be between $800M and $1B? Nov 23 $1,315 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on November 22? Nov 23 $1,314 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.40 on November 21? Nov 22 $1,312 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 20? Nov 21 $1,311 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $100,000 and $102,000 on November Nov 20 $1,310 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 18? Nov 19 $1,309 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,700 on November 17? Nov 18 $1,307 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $180 and $190 on November 16? Nov 16 $1,306 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on November 15? Nov 16 $1,304 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.80 on November 14? Nov 15 $1,303 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 13? Nov 14 $1,302 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.90 October 27-November 2? Nov 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 02 $1,559 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 23 $1,530 −$2 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 23 $1,530 −$2 -0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 22 $1,531 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $681 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $3,790 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $4,467 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $4,458 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 98¢ $4,458 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4,412 18d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $4,262 18d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 19d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 19d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2,020 19d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 19d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $863 19d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 19d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 19d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 19d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,010 19d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $49 19d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 19d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 19d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 19d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $95 19d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 19d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $168 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $1,517 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $13 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $2 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $31 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $22 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $3 20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $56 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,466.91 · official $4,466.91 (match) · 221 history records