Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:33:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x466c…05f0 weather 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$44 (-4%) realized −$33 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate39%57W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$44
14 days−$43
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -63.1% -66.6% 23% 15% -45.9%
≤30d 55 -38.5% -44.4% 31% 15% -20.1%
≤90d 145 -24.7% -31.8% 39% 17% -13.5%
all 145 -24.7% -31.8% 39% 17% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.8% 17% -13.5%
10% -38.4% 11% -21.8%
15% -44.3% 9% -29.4%
20% -49.8% 6% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses57 / 88
Open positions2
Markets (closed)145 / 147
History coverage59d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 88¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Yes 67¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 65 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -84%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $25 −$1 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 12 $3 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 12 $6 −$4 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 11 $2 −$1 -86%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 11 $2 $0 -27%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 11 $11 −$9 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $24 −$23 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 8? Jun 09 $19 +$3 +14%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 08 $10 −$10 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 08 $2 +$10 +632%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 08 $2 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 8? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 8? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on June 8? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 6? Jun 07 $3 +$15 +452%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 07 $16 −$8 -51%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 07 $53 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 07 $2 −$1 -92%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 07 $2 −$1 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 07 $2 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 06 $2 −$1 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 7? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $6 +$2 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 6? Jun 06 $14 +$11 +80%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 6? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 51°F or below on June 6? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -91%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 06 $2 −$1 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 6? Jun 06 $2 −$1 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 5? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 05 $3 −$2 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 4? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 4? Jun 05 $3 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 4? Jun 03 $2 −$1 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 4? Jun 03 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 3? Jun 03 $75 +$9 +12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma May 31 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on May 29? May 30 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 29? May 29 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ma May 29 $6 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on May 29? May 29 $2 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 88¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL No 90¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL No 90¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL No 90¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL No 22¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL No 32¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL No 52¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL No 62¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL No 63¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju SELL No 78¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY No 52¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL No 52¢ $6 3d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 39¢ $25 3d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun SELL Yes 95¢ $0 3d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY Yes 99¢ $2 3d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY Yes 99¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 12? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 11? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.10 · official $1.10 (match) · 470 history records