Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:52:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x466a…76e7 sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,121 (-22%) realized −$5,121 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$787per market
Trades / day22.4pace
Fees−$225est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$3,742
crypto 13% −$1,573
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-35.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -28.7% -35.5% 47% 43% -30.0%
≤30d 30 -28.7% -35.5% 47% 43% -30.0%
≤90d 30 -28.7% -35.5% 47% 43% -30.0%
all 30 -28.7% -35.5% 47% 43% -30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -35.5% 43% -30.0%
10% -41.7% 37% -36.7%
15% ← realistic here -47.3% 27% -42.8%
20% -52.5% 17% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$1,316) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$384 vs −$668 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,121
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$225
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage5d
Avg bet$787
Trades / day22.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,612 −$1,590 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $809 +$441 +55%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $312 −$312 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $1,042 +$442 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $98 −$95 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$24 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $130 +$28 +22%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $92 +$1 +1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,910 −$1,887 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$14 -28%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $1,350 −$1,336 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 16 $1,640 −$1,623 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2,338 +$685 +29%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $1,416 −$1,400 -99%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $5 +$4 +80%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Jun 16 $2,073 +$1,674 +81%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,316 +$761 +58%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $717 +$112 +16%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $813 −$800 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $310 −$131 -42%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $1,208 +$315 +26%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $939 +$408 +43%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $33 −$32 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $539 −$520 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $456 +$102 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $846 −$404 -48%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $973 +$394 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$9 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $513 −$500 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 46m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1,612 42h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 52¢ $312 44h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 64¢ $809 44h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,483 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $3 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $27 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $3 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $80 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $26 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 45h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $61 45h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 45h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $4 45h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $28 45h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $92 45h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 72¢ $62 45h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 70¢ $453 46h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 70¢ $61 46h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 70¢ $467 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records