Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:03:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
46 0x466a…8156 crypto 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 557d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$123 (+1%) realized +$122 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate90%57W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$386now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$186
other 16% +$8
tech 14% −$6
politics 13% +$5
finance 2% +$1
world 2% +$2
sports 2% +$299
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 15 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 63 +19.3% +7.9% 90% 3% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.9% 3% -8.4%
10% -2.4% 3% -17.2%
15% -11.8% 3% -25.2%
20% -20.5% 3% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +41% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$37 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

557d coverage
Net worth$386
Realized+$122
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses57 / 6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)63 / 67
History coverage557d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $182 $182 +$0 (+0%)
Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $135 $135 −$0 (-0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Xi Jinping out by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $140 +$1 +0%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? Jun 01 $169 +$1 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $212 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, May 15 $75 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 15 $95 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 15 $285 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on April 24? May 06 $94 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 06 $129 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 06 $183 +$1 +0%
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 23 $70 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 16 $200 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? Apr 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 03 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 03 $335 +$1 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 03 $120 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 February 16-22? Mar 03 $270 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 21 $15 −$14 -91%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 21 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 03 $100 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Feb 03 $128 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 03 $250 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 13? Jan 28 $140 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jan 13 $50 +$4 +8%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 13 $210 +$2 +1%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Jan 13 $215 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Dec 29 $230 +$2 +1%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in November? Dec 03 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? Dec 03 $215 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,800 on November 13? Nov 29 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on November 13? Nov 29 $175 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $230 on October 27? Nov 11 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in October? Nov 11 $110 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 11 $138 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? Nov 11 $165 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $5,000 on October 10? Oct 27 $268 +$1 +0%
Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in September? Oct 09 $60 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Oct 09 $188 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by September 30? Oct 09 $195 +$1 +0%
Ethereum above $3600 on August 11? Sep 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 22 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in August? Sep 22 $235 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Aug 10 $120 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 270 or more times June 27–July 4? Aug 10 $155 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 03 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Elon tweet 500 or more times June 6–13? Jul 03 $350 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 16–23? Jun 11 $125 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in May? Jun 11 $200 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $135 1h
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 7d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $172 7d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $200 7d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $141 18d
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $182 19d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $140 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 36d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $36 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $212 38d
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $133 38d
Will NYC Mayor post 120-139 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $95 48d
Will NYC Mayor post 140-159 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $285 48d
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from May 5 to May 12, BUY No 100¢ $75 48d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on April 24? BUY No 100¢ $94 61d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $129 68d
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $70 68d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 81d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $183 81d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $35 98d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $335 111d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 98¢ $55 111d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 February 16-22? BUY No 100¢ $270 121d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL Yes $1 121d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 99¢ $319 121d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 100¢ $120 140d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 99¢ $320 140d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $15 140d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $30 140d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $128 146d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $386.37 · official $386.37 (match) · 135 history records