Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:35:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
46 0x4660…ac6d other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$50 (+18%) realized +$34 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%14W / 14L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$48
7 days+$74
14 days+$99
30 days+$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$78
sports 17% +$37
world 12% −$31
crypto 10% −$5
culture 9% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +139.0% +116.3% 100% 100% +92.0%
≤30d 8 +103.0% +83.7% 100% 100% +61.2%
≤90d 15 +28.7% +16.4% 67% 60% +52.6%
all 28 +2.0% -7.7% 50% 46% +24.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 46% +24.1%
10% -16.5% 43% +12.2%
15% -24.6% 36% +1.4%
20% -32.0% 36% -8.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +65% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$3 · ×2.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.45 per $1 lost it wins $2.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses14 / 14
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)28 / 32
History coverage100d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 51¢ 82¢ $24 $39 +$15 (+62%)
Will Norway be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 36¢ 38¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+7%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 29 $25 +$30 +118%
South Africa vs. Canada: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026- Jun 28 $1 +$3 +273%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $14 +$16 +109%
Norway vs. France: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 AND Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/ Jun 26 $16 +$19 +113%
Will DR Congo be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 Jun 26 $9 +$7 +81%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $34 +$25 +73%
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $27 +$7 +27%
Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 31 $15 +$4 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Apr 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 16 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Apr 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Apr 08 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -93%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $8 −$6 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $1 +$2 +186%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 21 $1 +$2 +219%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Mar 21 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Mar 21 $1 +$1 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 1h
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 11h
Will Norway be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 36¢ $17 23h
South Africa vs. Canada: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026- BUY 26¢ $1 24h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 2d
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY 62¢ $18 2d
Norway vs. France: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 AND Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/ BUY 46¢ $16 3d
Will DR Congo be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 SELL Yes 58¢ $17 3d
Will DR Congo be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $9 10d
Will Bosnia & Herzegovina be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the Worl BUY Yes 51¢ $24 10d
Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $25 10d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $34 19d
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $34 19d
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $27 29d
Will Sister Sage die in "The Boys: Season 5"? BUY No 77¢ $15 61d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 73d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 73d
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $5 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 74d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 76d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $1 81d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL No 0¢ $2 82d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 0¢ $2 82d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 0¢ $6 83d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.33 · official $71.23 (match) · 58 history records