Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:54:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x465f…9d80
crypto · 725 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$68 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$67 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses359 / 363
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)722 / 725
History coverage36d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day35.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 3 History 722 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$50
14 days−$122
30 days−$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Scotland 37¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Switzerland 33¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Under 46¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Down 70¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? No 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Down 23¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 80¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Down 79¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $1 +$1 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 10? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$2 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$3 -74%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 96% −$58
weather 2% −$4
sports 1% −$2
other 1% $0
finance 0% $0
politics 0% −$2
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 74¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 70¢ $2 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 -22.7% -30.1% 43% 26% -25.5%
≤30d 700 -10.5% -19.1% 49% 37% -14.0%
≤90d 722 -10.0% -18.5% 50% 37% -13.7%
all 722 -10.0% -18.5% 50% 37% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover35.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 37% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 30% -22.0%
15% -33.5% 22% -29.5%
20% -40.0% 19% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.81 · official $2.81 (match) · 1663 history records