Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:09:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x465e…dcfd crypto 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (122 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$199 (-2%) realized −$173 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%7W / 10L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$329per market
Trades / day122.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$372
sports 0% −$9
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (122 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -24.0% -31.2% 41% 41% -13.6%
≤30d 17 -24.0% -31.2% 41% 41% -13.6%
≤90d 17 -24.0% -31.2% 41% 41% -13.6%
all 17 -24.0% -31.2% 41% 41% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover122.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.2% 41% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -37.8% 35% -21.9%
15% -43.8% 35% -29.4%
20% -49.3% 35% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$567) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -32% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$410 vs −$322 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized−$173
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses7 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)17 / 25
History coverage1d
Avg bet$329
Trades / day122.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Up 50¢ 50¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Up 54¢ 50¢ $32 $30 −$2 (-6%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $31 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 73¢ 50¢ $44 $30 −$14 (-32%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? No 40¢ 38¢ $10 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 49¢ 20¢ $16 $7 −$9 (-58%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 52¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Down 52¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $29 −$3 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 21 $40 +$20 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $1,913 +$1,275 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $329 −$312 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $700 +$434 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $526 −$495 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $1,219 −$1,150 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $538 −$523 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 21 $61 −$59 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $459 −$448 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $27 +$6 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $1,294 +$790 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 21 $55 −$52 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $567 +$343 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $288 −$180 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 21 $4 −$1 -35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $45 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 40¢ $10 5h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $16 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $60 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $37 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $3,188 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $34 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $241 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $12 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $22 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $23 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $13 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $628 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $919 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $97 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $232 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.23 · official $142.23 (match) · 125 history records