Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:52:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
46 0x465c…80a2 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+5%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$19
sports 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -14.5% -22.6% 80% 20% -4.2%
≤30d 5 -14.5% -22.6% 80% 20% -4.2%
≤90d 5 -14.5% -22.6% 80% 20% -4.2%
all 5 -14.5% -22.6% 80% 20% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.6% 20% -4.2%
10% -30.0% 0% -13.3%
15% -36.8% 0% -21.7%
20% -43.0% 0% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% too few recent
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.85 per $1 lost it wins $3.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $60 +$6 +10%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $89 +$11 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $81 +$3 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $50 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $60 26h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 26h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $89 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $81 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.71 · official $49.71 (match) · 10 history records