Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:04:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
46 0x465b…444a politics 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,194per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$17
politics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 5 +0.3% -9.3% 40% 0% -9.3%
all 7 +0.2% -9.3% 43% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage147d
Avg bet$2,194
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? May 18 $43 $0 +0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $42 $0 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Mar 26 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 09 $17,273 −$18 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? Mar 09 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $43 1h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 1h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 19d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 19d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 34d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $43 60d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $42 60d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $42 87d
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? SELL No 100¢ $42 87d
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? BUY No 97¢ $41 104d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $17,255 104d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $17,273 104d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $22 147d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.98 · official $42.98 (match) · 62 history records