Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4657…79ae world 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$4
other 36% +$2
crypto 9% −$10
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.3% -7.4% 40% 0% -7.9%
≤30d 25 -1.4% -10.8% 40% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 32 -1.7% -11.1% 38% 0% -9.9%
all 38 -0.8% -10.2% 42% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 3% -9.9%
10% -18.8% 3% -18.6%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage97d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 94¢ 94¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 45¢ 55¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $62 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $29 +$3 +10%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $63 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $53 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $42 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 -12%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $78 +$5 +7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $59 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $25 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $29 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 27 $5 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $25 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $39 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 24 $31 −$8 -26%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $42 −$8 -20%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $266 −$2 -1%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 13 $280 −$1 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 13 $292 +$2 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 12 $13 −$1 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $23 $0 +0%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 11 $5 −$1 -15%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 17 $248 −$10 -4%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Mar 17 $272 +$1 +0%
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 16 $13 +$1 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 16 $246 +$1 +0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 13 $18 +$4 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $32 42m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $36 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 69¢ $21 28h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $21 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $32 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $31 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $15 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $13 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $18 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $25 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $24 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $31 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $15 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $17 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 70¢ $9 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 70¢ $20 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $10 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 45¢ $16 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $32 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 9d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 11d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $32 12d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $32 12d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.19 · official $31.98 (match) · 142 history records