Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:02:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x4653…056a
other · 159 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$65 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$92 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$65
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses18 / 140
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)158 / 159
History coverage96d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 1 History 158 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$31
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 92¢ 91¢ $65 $65 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $109 −$1 -1%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $69 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 13 $70 −$2 -3%
Will South Korea reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 13 $62 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $494 −$1 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $194 −$3 -2%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $62 −$1 -2%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $106 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 10 $46 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $65 +$2 +3%
Will Emiliano Martínez record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA W Jun 10 $54 −$8 -14%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 09 $93 −$1 -1%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 09 $86 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 09 $46 −$1 -3%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $12 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $182 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 06 $47 −$1 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $117 $0 -0%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 05 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $150 $0 -0%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $37 −$1 -3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 04 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $124 $0 -0%
Will Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? Jun 03 $65 −$2 -3%
Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 03 $42 −$2 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 02 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $114 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $195 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $138 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $42 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 29 $154 −$3 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 29 $176 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $208 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $28 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $281 −$1 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 27 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 26 $48 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $54 −$1 -1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $112 −$1 -1%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $253 −$1 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $49 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $284 −$3 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $60 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 33% −$14
other 27% −$32
sports 16% −$14
crypto 8% −$7
finance 4% −$10
world 4% −$4
culture 3% −$1
economics 3% −$6
tech 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $65 1h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $63 2h
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $64 7h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 95¢ $68 7h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 96¢ $27 15h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 15h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $69 16h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $70 23h
Will South Korea reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 98¢ $62 24h
Will South Korea reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 98¢ $62 31h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $62 31h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $62 39h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $70 40h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $70 45h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $34 46h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $34 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $70 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $70 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $67 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $69 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $70 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $70 3d
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $61 3d
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $62 3d
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 98¢ $52 3d
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $52 3d
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 98¢ $0 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $46 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? BUY No 91¢ $46 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 95¢ $67 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -1.6% -10.9% 13% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 63 -1.0% -10.4% 8% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 154 -0.6% -10.1% 10% 0% -9.9%
all 158 -0.6% -10.1% 11% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.74 · official $64.74 (match) · 661 history records