Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:15:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
46 0x4653…fc2b weather 390 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,605 (+5%) realized +$1,595 · open +$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate89%344W / 41L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days+$3
14 days+$504
30 days+$373
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% +$1,485
crypto 4% +$11
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -3.0% -12.2% 83% 28% -9.5%
≤30d 101 -3.1% -12.3% 85% 23% -7.6%
≤90d 265 +2.4% -7.4% 88% 28% -5.2%
all 385 +2.5% -7.2% 89% 26% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 26% -5.2%
10% -16.1% 9% -14.3%
15% -24.2% 4% -22.6%
20% -31.6% 3% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$27 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.33 per $1 lost it wins $2.33
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized+$1,595
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses344 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)385 / 390
History coverage118d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 385 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? No 93¢ 98¢ $185 $195 +$10 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? No 72¢ 86¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 15? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 15 $200 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $201 +$22 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $161 +$21 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $301 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $34 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $271 +$6 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $92 −$58 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $198 +$15 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $349 +$22 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $75 +$10 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $206 +$35 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $67 +$15 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $35 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $28 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $513 +$37 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $211 +$9 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $73 +$7 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $85 +$9 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 9? Jun 10 $250 +$10 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 10 $583 −$134 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $399 +$22 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $230 +$16 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $61 −$61 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 8? Jun 08 $178 +$22 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $338 +$14 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $246 −$34 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $28 −$27 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $384 +$29 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $627 +$60 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 7? Jun 07 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $48 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $143 +$12 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 6? Jun 07 $381 +$36 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 6? Jun 07 $19 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 6? Jun 06 $668 +$25 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 6? Jun 06 $79 +$7 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 6? Jun 06 $153 +$14 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $200 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $130 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $352 +$11 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 5? Jun 05 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4? Jun 05 $201 +$17 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $321 +$13 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 4? Jun 04 $18 +$20 +111%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $25 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $252 +$33 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 26°C on June 4? Jun 04 $57 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C on June 4? Jun 04 $42 −$8 -19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 91¢ $9 48m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $0 56m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 72¢ $10 57m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 93¢ $177 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $200 20h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $201 20h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 88¢ $161 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 4¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $91 42h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $34 42h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 97¢ $152 42h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 96¢ $58 42h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $271 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 97¢ $18 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 97¢ $13 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 4¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $204 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 88¢ $62 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 93¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 93¢ $137 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $95 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 92¢ $60 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $85 2d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 88¢ $75 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AN BUY 4¢ $7 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? BUY Yes 84¢ $109 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? BUY Yes 86¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? BUY Yes 86¢ $12 3d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? BUY No 86¢ $16 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.57 · official $218.57 · 1231 history records