Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:22:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4652…0664 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$37 (+5%) realized +$34 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%11W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day16.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$103
crypto 21% −$19
sports 19% +$18
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +12.2% +1.5% 41% 37% -23.4%
≤30d 27 +12.2% +1.5% 41% 37% -23.4%
≤90d 27 +12.2% +1.5% 41% 37% -23.4%
all 27 +12.2% +1.5% 41% 37% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.5% 37% -23.4%
10% -8.2% 22% -30.8%
15% -17.1% 22% -37.4%
20% -25.2% 22% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$14 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses11 / 16
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)27 / 32
History coverage4d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day16.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 87¢ 94¢ $23 $25 +$2 (+9%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $45 −$10 -23%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $57 −$12 -22%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $159 −$156 -98%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $87 +$12 +14%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $5 $0 -2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 27 $51 −$2 -5%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 +$17 +324%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Jun 27 $101 −$5 -5%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $5 −$1 -23%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 27 $5 $0 -4%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $15 +$2 +16%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $5 $0 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $61 +$37 +61%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 26 $5 +$1 +18%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlan Jun 26 $10 +$15 +145%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 25 $5 −$2 -30%
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals Jun 25 $10 +$10 +100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 25 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 +$18 +358%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Denzel Dumfries: 1+ assists Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $23 49m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 49m
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 49m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes $2 55m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $39 55m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 38¢ $7 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 30¢ $94 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 51¢ $10 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $82 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 52¢ $33 2h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 38¢ $5 3h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 18¢ $49 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 53¢ $34 3h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 3h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $5 3h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $57 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 45¢ $96 3h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $101 6h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 6h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $5 6h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.72 · official $45.72 (match) · 67 history records