Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:11:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x464c…c774 other 256 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$80 (-0%) realized −$80 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%16W / 239L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$215per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$18
14 days−$31
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$36
sports 26% −$19
politics 7% −$5
economics 6% −$5
culture 6% −$6
crypto 6% −$4
world 3% −$3
tech 2% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 177 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 255 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses16 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)255 / 256
History coverage143d
Avg bet$215
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 255 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $59 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $567 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $147 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $371 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $345 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $337 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $367 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $136 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $153 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $257 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $776 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $99 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $473 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $336 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $533 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $333 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $61 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $350 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $376 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $142 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $339 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $417 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $528 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $62 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $323 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $783 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $307 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $703 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $354 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 09 $317 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $958 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $243 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $234 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $302 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $312 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $527 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $152 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $210 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $561 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $136 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 2h
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $59 3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 4h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 6h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 8h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $59 10h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 14h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $59 16h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $59 20h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $59 21h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $59 24h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $59 25h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $59 33h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 35h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $59 36h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 38h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 39h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 40h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 42h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 44h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $60 45h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $60 46h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $60 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $60 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.51 · official $58.51 (match) · 1508 history records