Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:38:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x464c…352d sports 384 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$418 (-14%) realized −$418 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate68%263W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day15.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$203
7 days−$587
14 days−$558
30 days−$442
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$395
other 8% −$28
tech 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$1
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 137 -65.7% -69.0% 31% 3% -36.6%
≤30d 366 -9.1% -17.7% 67% 26% -22.8%
≤90d 384 -4.7% -13.8% 68% 28% -22.3%
all 384 -4.7% -13.8% 68% 28% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 28% -22.3%
10% -22.1% 22% -29.7%
15% -29.6% 17% -36.5%
20% -36.5% 15% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$418
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses263 / 121
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)384 / 384
History coverage32d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day15.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 384 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $41 +$3 +7%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 24 $41 +$4 +10%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $230 −$230 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $230 +$12 +5%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 $0 +2%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $131 +$8 +6%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 $0 +0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $103 +$5 +5%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $224 −$224 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $262 +$16 +6%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $111 +$6 +5%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $32 +$3 +11%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $16 +$1 +5%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $9 +$1 +6%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $32 +$2 +6%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $16 +$1 +5%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $32 +$2 +5%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $31 +$2 +5%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $39 +$2 +5%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 20 $15 +$1 +6%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $43 +$2 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $29 +$2 +7%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $29 +$2 +6%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Inter Miami CF (-1.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Córdoba CF vs. SD Huesca end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Croatia vs. Slovenia end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CA Platense win on 2026-05-27? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Independiente Santa Fe win on 2026-05-27? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Imabari win on 2026-06-07? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2026-05-24? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-23? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
CR Vasco da Gama vs. Red Bull Bragantino: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Columbus Crew (-1.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Alianza Atlético win on 2026-05-24? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-23? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CS Cienciano win on 2026-05-27? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Boston Red Sox 93¢ $41 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 91¢ $41 2h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 92¢ $230 5h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 95¢ $230 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 26h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 94¢ $131 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 94¢ $262 2d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 95¢ $103 2d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 94¢ $224 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 95¢ $111 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 95¢ $16 3d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 90¢ $32 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 94¢ $32 3d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 94¢ $9 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 95¢ $16 3d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 95¢ $32 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 3d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Los Angeles Angels 95¢ $15 4d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 95¢ $31 4d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 95¢ $39 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 94¢ $15 4d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 95¢ $43 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 4d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 93¢ $29 5d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 94¢ $29 5d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) SELL South Africa 73¢ $1 5d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 73¢ $1 5d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Korea Republic 78¢ $1 5d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Ghana 43¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 799 history records