Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:24:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4647…0860 sports 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$112 (-7%) realized −$110 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%34W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$25
14 days+$25
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$192
other 16% +$36
crypto 8% −$79
world 3% +$48
finance 2% +$21
politics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +10.7% +0.1% 67% 67% +4.8%
≤30d 37 +11.3% +0.7% 54% 49% -19.3%
≤90d 71 +1.2% -8.5% 48% 41% -20.6%
all 71 +1.2% -8.5% 48% 41% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 41% -20.6%
10% -17.2% 39% -28.2%
15% -25.2% 38% -35.2%
20% -32.5% 31% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$19 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$110
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses34 / 37
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions5
Markets (closed)71 / 76
History coverage64d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 44¢ 44¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 +$17 +114%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$18 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$10 +40%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 27 $5 +$5 +105%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $31 −$31 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 27 $10 +$4 +42%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $38 −$37 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $31 +$25 +83%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $10 +$3 +34%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $195 −$191 -98%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante May 27 $5 +$31 +596%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - CCT Europe Series May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $78 −$10 -13%
Dota 2: by Owl Club vs TPaBoMaH Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Group May 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $41 +$58 +143%
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs PCIFIC (BO5) - TCL Playoffs May 26 $31 +$36 +117%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $51 −$34 -66%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $10 +$6 +54%
Dota 2: OG vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $40 +$22 +55%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $15 −$15 -99%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $53 +$25 +47%
Dota 2: Ramzes Club vs Stariy Bog Club (BO3) - Winline Star Series Gro May 26 $51 −$24 -47%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? May 26 $5 −$4 -76%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 26 $5 +$4 +85%
Will Bitcoin have the best performance in 2026? May 26 $5 −$2 -35%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? May 26 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 26 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? May 26 $15 +$9 +58%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $23 +$28 +123%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $14 +$8 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 22 $5 −$2 -36%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Fulham FC end in a draw? May 17 $5 +$9 +180%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 17 $41 −$40 -99%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Lynn Vision (BO5) - Asian Champions League May 17 $51 −$35 -68%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $30 +$35 +114%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs BASEMENT BOYS (BO3) - Parken C May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 17 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Rainbow Six Siege: FaZe Clan vs DarkZero Esports (BO3) - BLAST R6 Majo May 17 $15 +$19 +125%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Map Handicap: 100T (-1.5) vs LOUD (+1.5) May 17 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Game Handicap: FaZe (-1.5) vs DarkZero Esports (+1.5) May 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $15 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $30 7h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 8h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $44 14h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $15 21h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 21h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $25 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 25h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $25 32h
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY BetBoom Team 58¢ $1 21d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY BetBoom Team 54¢ $10 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? SELL Yes $0 21d
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $11 21d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY BetBoom Team 55¢ $1 22d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY BetBoom Team 57¢ $30 22d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 42¢ $14 22d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY GLYPH 21¢ $25 22d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $42 22d
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY GLYPH 23¢ $13 22d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 57¢ $13 22d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Xtreme Gaming 33¢ $42 22d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Xtreme Gaming 33¢ $51 22d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Xtreme Gaming 33¢ $51 22d
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante SELL paiN Gaming Academy 100¢ $36 22d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL LGD Gaming 34¢ $14 22d
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY LGD Gaming 36¢ $31 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.42 · official $103.42 (match) · 159 history records