Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:07:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4643…e062 other 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$235 (-7%) realized −$240 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%30W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$171
14 days−$121
30 days−$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$132
sports 18% −$255
crypto 15% −$186
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -10.5% -19.0% 48% 45% -15.3%
≤30d 51 -5.8% -14.8% 47% 43% -10.2%
≤90d 55 -9.3% -18.0% 45% 42% -11.1%
all 75 -19.8% -27.5% 40% 37% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 37% -15.6%
10% -34.4% 32% -23.7%
15% -40.8% 31% -31.1%
20% -46.6% 27% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$26 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized−$240
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses30 / 45
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions5
Markets (closed)75 / 80
History coverage118d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 62¢ $36 $42 +$6 (+17%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 51¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+0%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-2%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $37 +$33 +90%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $18 +$7 +40%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $18 +$4 +21%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $159 −$69 -43%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $56 −$47 -85%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $36 −$36 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $88 +$82 +93%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $51 −$5 -10%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $100 −$84 -84%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $36 +$3 +10%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $40 −$4 -11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $36 +$21 +57%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $127 −$110 -86%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $18 +$2 +12%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$1 -9%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $18 +$10 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $36 +$20 +55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $36 +$28 +76%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $36 +$27 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $36 +$23 +62%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $36 +$21 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $37 −$24 -66%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $37 −$36 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $36 +$27 +73%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $226 +$116 +51%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $183 +$87 +48%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$51 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $123 −$10 -8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$56 +276%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $37 −$36 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$15 -7%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $202 +$84 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $25 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $37 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 18h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 18h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $56 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $37 34h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $36 34h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $37 34h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 51¢ $88 39h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $88 46h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $56 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $46 2d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $9 2d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $18 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $16 2d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $41 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $90 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 15¢ $36 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 16¢ $40 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $16 3d
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $109 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 4d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $161.31 · official $161.32 (match) · 150 history records