Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:27:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
46 0x4643…8a09 other 133 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate8%10W / 123L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$308per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$23
politics 37% −$19
sports 5% +$51
economics 5% −$2
crypto 3% −$1
world 1% −$1
tech 1% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 119 +0.3% -9.3% 3% 3% -9.6%
all 133 +1.2% -8.5% 8% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 5% -9.5%
10% -17.2% 5% -18.2%
15% -25.2% 5% -26.1%
20% -32.5% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×12.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses10 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)133 / 133
History coverage115d
Avg bet$308
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 133 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 21 $51 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $290 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 18 $32 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $370 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 31 $274 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $254 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $277 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $236 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $317 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $247 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $319 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $232 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 19 $229 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $262 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $617 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $320 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $265 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 16 $659 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $265 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $245 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $270 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $243 $0 -0%
Will Tomas Machac win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 11 $271 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $301 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 09 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $460 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $494 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $586 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $244 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $318 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $307 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $523 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $308 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $250 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $319 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $288 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $640 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $291 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 30 $284 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $266 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $548 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $51 1h
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $51 16h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $26 24h
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $26 28h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $51 31h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $32 2d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $32 7d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $42 10d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $42 11d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $37 12d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $37 12d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 13d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 14d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $38 15d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $38 16d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $274 21d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $274 23d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $241 24d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $241 24d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $254 24d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $254 24d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $277 24d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $277 25d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $236 26d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $236 27d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $317 27d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $317 28d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $247 28d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $247 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 382 history records