Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:42:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
46 0x4642…9458 crypto 302 markets active 2h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,101 (+10%) realized +$1,100 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%147W / 149L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days−$24
14 days−$30
30 days+$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$1,022
other 12% +$103
sports 6% −$87
politics 0% −$53
world 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -44.7% -50.0% 29% 29% -20.8%
≤30d 17 -12.9% -21.2% 35% 35% +12.6%
≤90d 43 +2.8% -7.0% 40% 40% -3.7%
all 296 -0.6% -10.1% 50% 49% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 49% -1.2%
10% -18.7% 47% -10.6%
15% -26.5% 46% -19.3%
20% -33.7% 42% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$29 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$1,100
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses147 / 149
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)296 / 302
History coverage142d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 296 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 66¢ 64¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 128 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $31 −$15 -48%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $78 −$76 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $84 +$244 +291%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $10 −$10 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $30 +$35 +114%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 14 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-17? May 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 14 $103 −$102 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 14 $104 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 14 $11 +$6 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 14 $96 +$81 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 14 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 14 $21 +$20 +97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $101 +$74 +73%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $5 +$28 +550%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-03? May 01 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $10 −$9 -87%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $10 +$47 +474%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Apr 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $20 +$25 +124%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $70 +$53 +76%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-03? Mar 03 $125 −$125 -100%
Real Madrid CF vs. Getafe CF: O/U 2.5 Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Rockets vs. Wizards Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 02 $10 +$5 +54%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO5) - DreamLeague Playoffs Mar 01 $20 −$17 -85%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Axiom be accused of insider trading? Mar 01 $10 +$65 +646%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $30 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 8¢ $10 17h
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 4¢ $16 34h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 34h
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 44¢ $20 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-1 BUY 31¢ $10 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 6d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $10 6d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 27¢ $10 6d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $20 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 7d
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 41¢ $10 7d
Florian Wirtz: 2+ assists BUY Yes 49¢ $10 7d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 8d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 26¢ $26 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 10d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $27 23d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 23d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 25¢ $84 28d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 28d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 30d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 34d
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o BUY Yes 4¢ $3 38d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 38d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 38d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.76 · official $80.76 (match) · 554 history records