Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:31:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
46 0x4642…21d3 sports 224 markets active 0h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$95 (+0%) realized −$475 · open +$570
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%109W / 108L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$325est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$970now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$91
7 days−$1,716
14 days−$834
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$1,303
other 13% −$870
world 1% −$5
politics 1% −$20
tech 1% +$14
crypto 1% −$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -38.4% -44.3% 28% 26% -34.3%
≤30d 66 -6.0% -14.9% 44% 39% -9.3%
≤90d 216 +6.6% -3.6% 50% 48% -10.7%
all 217 +6.5% -3.6% 50% 47% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 47% -10.7%
10% -12.8% 45% -19.3%
15% -21.2% 40% -27.1%
20% -29.0% 37% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$82 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$970
Realized−$475
Unrealized+$570
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses109 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$325
Open positions7
Markets (closed)217 / 224
History coverage102d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 0¢ 81¢ $0 $243 +$243 (+0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 14¢ $100 $172 +$72 (+72%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 0¢ 34¢ $0 $137 +$137 (+0%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Yes 0¢ 24¢ $0 $107 +$107 (+0%)
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $100 $93 −$7 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 +$243 +238%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $112 −$110 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $101 +$74 +73%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $101 +$94 +93%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 +$110 +54%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$48 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Team to Take First Corner Jun 20 $202 +$84 +42%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $506 +$326 +64%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $133 −$37 -28%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $102 +$28 +28%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$87 -85%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 +$161 +158%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 Jun 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 17 $129 −$129 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 17 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $202 −$202 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Jun 17 $202 −$202 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Qatar leading at halftime? Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $308 −$308 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$109 +107%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $102 +$183 +180%
France vs. Senegal: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $503 +$26 +5%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$332 +324%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$255 +250%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 25¢ $112 10m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 49¢ $203 46m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 15h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 16h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 16h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 22h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 23h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $112 23h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 26h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $102 26h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 26h
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 32h
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 32h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 100¢ $196 36h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $312 36h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 51¢ $101 37h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Team to Take First Corner BUY Germany 70¢ $202 47h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 47h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $832 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $506 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $91 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 26¢ $131 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 4¢ $16 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $970.20 · official $970.23 (match) · 576 history records