Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:31:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x463e…e917 world 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$6
other 24% $0
sports 5% +$3
crypto 4% −$10
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 22% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.6% 22% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 14 -0.5% -10.0% 29% 0% -10.4%
all 26 -3.0% -12.2% 42% 4% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 4% -11.3%
10% -20.6% 0% -19.8%
15% -28.3% 0% -27.5%
20% -35.3% 0% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage476d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 24 $127 −$4 -3%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $28 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $29 $0 -0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $29 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $59 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $28 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 25 $31 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $35 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $33 −$2 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $30 $0 +2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 10 $2 $0 +4%
Will federal spending decrease by $1-2t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025? Dec 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by Friday? Mar 19 $6 $0 +2%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Kentucky win the SEC Tournament? Mar 15 $6 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 7-14? Mar 13 $16 $0 -3%
Dogecoin above $0.20 on March 14? Mar 13 $15 $0 -1%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 12 $13 +$3 +21%
Kraken vs. Predators Mar 05 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 54¢ $29 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $29 5h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $28 18h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $28 21h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $11 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $18 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 74¢ $28 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 74¢ $28 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $29 4d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $29 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $8 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $20 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $29 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $31 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $31 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $17 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $11 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $28 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $16 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $11 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $27 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $3 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $28 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $9 28d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $30 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $1 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records