Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:20:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
46 0x463d…f784 crypto 1799 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$734 (+4%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate82%1601W / 362L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day50.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$49
14 days+$86
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1327 -11.8% -20.2% 82% 12% -9.2%
≤30d 1758 -8.6% -17.3% 85% 11% -9.1%
≤90d 1963 -12.0% -20.4% 82% 12% -9.3%
all 1963 -12.0% -20.4% 82% 12% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.4% 12% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -28.0% 2% -18.0%
15% -35.0% 1% -25.9%
20% -41.3% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses1601 / 362
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1963 / 1799
History coverage38d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day50.2
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1963 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Up 93¢ 90¢ $18 $17 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 82¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Down 95¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Down 85¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 93¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 73¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $18 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $18 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $18 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $18 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $18 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $18 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $19 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $18 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $19 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $18 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.00 · official $18.11 (match) · 3500 history records