Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:37:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

46
0x463a…b815
crypto · 29 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$7 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$34 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$34
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses18 / 9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day151.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 2 History 27 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$34
14 days−$34
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Down 65¢ 46¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-28%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Up 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $24 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $29 −$6 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $23 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $19 −$17 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $22 −$22 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 14 $22 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $19 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $16 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$36
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -10.4% -18.9% 67% 37% -20.0%
≤30d 27 -10.4% -18.9% 67% 37% -20.0%
≤90d 27 -10.4% -18.9% 67% 37% -20.0%
all 27 -10.4% -18.9% 67% 37% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover151.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 37% -20.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 26% -27.7%
15% -33.8% 15% -34.6%
20% -40.3% 11% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.29 · official $5.66 (match) · 172 history records