Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:44:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
46 0x4638…6b0a sports 849 markets active 0h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 142d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$745 (+1%) realized +$746 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%825W / 20L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day18.5pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$290now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$21
14 days−$135
30 days+$338
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$401
world 9% +$395
crypto 7% +$271
other 6% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 192 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 819 +0.1% -9.5% 99% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 838 -0.1% -9.6% 98% 1% -8.2%
all 845 +0.0% -9.5% 98% 1% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 1% -7.7%
10% -18.2% 0% -16.5%
15% -26.1% 0% -24.6%
20% -33.3% 0% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$30 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$290
Realized+$746
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses825 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions4
Markets (closed)845 / 849
History coverage142d ⚠
Avg bet$62
Trades / day18.5
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 845 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 93¢ $186 $186 +$0 (+0%)
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? No 100¢ 98¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 100¢ 98¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Minnesota Twins 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,297 +$4 +0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $200 $0 +0%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $27 $0 +1%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $50 1m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 3m
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 100¢ $10 39m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 100¢ $10 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 99¢ $5 1h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Toronto Blue Jays 99¢ $5 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 100¢ $5 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 99¢ $5 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 100¢ $10 1h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 99¢ $5 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2h
Dota 2: PlayTime vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Americ BUY PlayTime 100¢ $10 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 99¢ $5 2h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 100¢ $50 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 100¢ $13 5h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 100¢ $7 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $970 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 5h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $175 5h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 100¢ $25 5h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 100¢ $49 5h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 100¢ $1 5h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 5h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner BUY GenOne 100¢ $20 7h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 100¢ $10 8h
Grass Court Championships: Suzan Lamens vs Paula Badosa BUY Paula Badosa 100¢ $10 9h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic BUY Ugo Humbert 100¢ $10 9h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Vitality 100¢ $10 9h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 100¢ $20 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $289.92 · official $289.92 (match) · 3500 history records