Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:36:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
46 0x4637…bc4a crypto 216 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$414 (-3%) realized −$416 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate59%127W / 88L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$51
7 days−$1
14 days−$21
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$762
culture 0% −$13
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +0.3% -9.3% 66% 38% -9.6%
≤30d 144 -3.5% -12.7% 62% 39% -11.5%
≤90d 215 -6.0% -14.9% 59% 36% -15.4%
all 215 -6.0% -14.9% 59% 36% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 36% -15.4%
10% -23.1% 18% -23.5%
15% -30.5% 8% -30.9%
20% -37.3% 3% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$24 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$416
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses127 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)215 / 216
History coverage96d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 18? Yes 45¢ 48¢ $27 $29 +$2 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $80 −$7 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $33 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $22 +$5 +25%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $26 −$12 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$18 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 17 $23 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$6 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $41 +$34 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $44 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $28 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $33 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $62 −$10 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$12 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$20 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$5 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$6 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $27 +$11 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$19 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $54 −$15 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $22 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $96 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $45 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $22 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$2 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $25 −$7 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $79 −$13 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$6 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $19 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $38 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $68 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $22 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $23 −$5 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 14 $34 +$10 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 45¢ $28 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 60¢ $23 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 64¢ $26 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 64¢ $25 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 65¢ $27 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 64¢ $25 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 66¢ $27 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 79¢ $26 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 79¢ $10 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 79¢ $4 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 64¢ $33 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $27 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $7 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $9 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 31¢ $12 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $33 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $15 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $29 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $23 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $7 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $6 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $13 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $19 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $28 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $17 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $47 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.10 · official $29.10 (match) · 760 history records